The current discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have misshaped crucial oil forecasts under extreme U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the opportunities of discovering brand-new reserves have the possible to toss federal governments' long-lasting preparation into mayhem.

Whatever the truth, increasing long term global demands appear certain to outstrip production in the next decade, specifically given the high and rising expenses of developing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a circumstance, ingredients and alternatives such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing prices drive this innovation to the leading edge, one of the wealthiest possible production areas has actually been totally overlooked by financiers up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to end up being a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign financial investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom since of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of natural gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have mainly inhibited their ability to cash in on increasing global energy needs already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mainly reliant for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, however their increased need to produce winter season electricity has caused autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn seriously impacting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream countries do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually become a significant manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian federal government authorities, provided the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser extent Astana for those durable investors willing to bank on the future, specifically as a plant indigenous to the region has actually currently proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American business currently examining how to produce it in industrial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the first Asian provider to experiment with flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month assessment of camelina's functional efficiency capability and potential commercial viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil material low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another perk of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's particles can be utilized for animals silage. Camelina silage has an especially attractive concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it an especially great livestock feed prospect that is recently gaining acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well against weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina might be a perfect low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard household, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a brand-new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence indicates it has been cultivated in Europe for at least three millennia to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research study, showed a vast array of outcomes of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil material varying between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been determined to be in the 6-8 pound per acre range, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can develop problems in germination to accomplish an optimum plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's potential might permit Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has deformed the country's efforts at agrarian reform since accomplishing self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric market. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also bought by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-sufficient in cotton; five years later on it had actually become a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.

Try as it may to diversify, in the lack of options Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million lots annually, which brings in more than $1 billion while constituting around 60 percent of the country's hard cash income.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government's instructions for Central Asian cotton production mostly bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton utilizes about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet coordinators to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region's 2 main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into ineffective irrigation canals, leading to the significant shrinkage of the rivers' last destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, as soon as the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has actually shrunk to one-quarter its original size in among the 20th century's worst ecological disasters.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State just recently explained camelina's company design to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230."

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering infrastructure and a modest wage scale in comparison to America or Europe - all that's missing is the foreign investment. U.S. investors have the money and access to the know-how of America's land grant universities. What is particular is that biofuel's market share will grow gradually; less particular is who will profit of developing it as a feasible issue in Central Asia.

If the current past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European investors, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments show Asian interest, American financiers have the academic proficiency, if they want to follow the Silk Road into establishing a new market. Certainly anything that reduces water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the lot of their agrarian population will get most mindful factor to consider from Central Asia's federal governments, and farming and grease processing plants are not only more affordable than pipelines, they can be constructed quicker.

And jatropha curcas's biofuel potential? Another story for another time.